Any predictions whether MNP may have any impact on operators to focus on VAS?
My take is that it QoS and tariffs are no longer incentives for porting in the Indian context since Qos remains equally bad across all operators and tariff plans seem to be either confusing or somewhat similar across operators in similar circles. Operators would indeed have to look towards VAS inorder to differentiate their offerings to lock in high end( high ARPU users) once MNP is implemented.

On mobile advertsing we are already seeing some traction on it from global brands such as Nokia, Yahoo and Google who are aiming to partcipate and forge partnerships with telcos and independent VAS companies and even advertising agencies to build an ecosystem and business models around this concept. Its not hard to beleieve that you might see some global brands coming in and changing the rules of the game in order to garner a larger revenue share through mob ads than the existing skewed revenue sharing arrangement. They will still nt be able to bypass the telcos but due to their stromng brand may excercise some power to negotiate a better revenue share.

"I expect more WAP sites for existing Internet portals",

WAP is dead. Major sites will still however prepare sites that they feel are mobile compatible, forgetting that modern browsers can now display the real Web on even low-end cheap handsets.

"but don’t think mobile-only portals will work."

I agree with that. People want and certainly deserve the full Web they are used to looking at on their computers. This is 2008 after all, not 2001.

WiMAX as the Top Wireless Trend for 2008

Fortune has named WiMAX as the top ten wireless trend for 2008.The naming of WiMAX as the top wireless trend for 2008 has not come as a surprise to industry watchers. A number of developments, happening in their own areas are now coming together to deliver the promise of a completely new mobile wireless experience, the first in over a decade. There are no less than ten reasons, which we foresee today, which are likely to make this prediction ring true.
  Firstly, the price of CPEs based on bill of material costs has for the first time forecast to be below $100 (e.g. by Wavesat®). This is even without any of the large scale introductions of WiMAX networks,  and even with relatively low CPE volumes in existence today. With volume the prices are set to nosedive even further.
      Second, the year 2008 is slated to be one, where large scale introductions of WiMAX networks will happen. The launch of XOHM by Sprint Nextel and WiMAX from Clearwire® will propel the availability of WiMAX to over 100 million of customers before the year is out. This follows over 200 trials and successful introductions in a number of countries.
  Third, WiMAX technologies have now matured with the WIMAX forum certifying Wave 2 compatible mobile WiMAX devices. Chipsets are available e.g. from Beceem or Runcom amongst many others which provide immediate implementation of a variety of customer premises equipment(CPEs).

  Fourth, the governments worldwide have now much higher awareness of the power of mobility as well WiMAX as an enabler of rural and urban connectivities and its potential in delivering high speed applications. With many of the countries adding 8-10 million users a month for mobile services, universal connectivity is squarely in focus. This is implying a better focus on regulatory issues to spur WiMAX networks.

  Fifthly there is a greater availability of CPEs ranging from PC cards, USB modems, standalone gaming devices and internet tablets. Hence operators who do not possess wireline assets are now willing to take a plunge with the new technologies.

  Sixth, there is now much better clarity on the use of spectrum for WIMAX and mobile WiMAX. With the WRC 2007 adopting the OFDMA-TDD as one of the approved air interfaces under IMT-2000 as well as clearly defining the WiMAX spectrum bands, many of the pending allocations can be quickly resolved.

  Seventh, the success of programs such as M-Taiwan and Eratech® Argentina amongst many others have demonstrated that e-governance and universal connectivity are key drivers of global competitiveness. Regulators globally are seeking expeditious implementations of WiMAX networks, both through spectrum auctions as well as licensing etc.

  Eighth,  most of the legacy wireline and wireless networks based on TDM circuit switched architecture are nearing end of life and the new generation networks( NGNs) are invariably being implemented based on IP. WiMAX is one of the key wireless technologies which are based on completely open architectures, use of IETF protocols and use of IPv6. The use of WiMAX is seen not only as a migration to open IP core networks with support for mobility but also migration to IPv6 which is inevitable with growing base of mobile devices and mandates for such migration in many countries.

Ninth, the WiMAX technology, unlike its predecessor the WiFi, provides a number of quality of service classes, which can be defined for each connection and each application running over these connections. Thus it can support VoIP for rural telephony as easily as streaming video with their own QoS classes. It is now being seen as a key technology to enable true broadband capable of supporting a rich multimedia messaging and calling environments. Whether it is pictures with an 8Mp camera or an 80GB iPOD®, WiMAX can keep these wireless. Many applications are now ready to step out of the limited connectivity and the row resolutions enabled by today’s mobile networks.

Tenth and finally, all this would be in vain, were it not for some “big-bang” introductions of the technology, which immediately provide a critical mass for prices to come down sufficiently for even more users to subscribe to the service, thus creating a chain reaction.
With the impending launches in a number of countries, as well as launch of Sprint Nextel XOHM and Clearwire® services in USA, the stage is now fully set for just such a phenomenon.

  Just as WiFi changed the landscape in the use of computers and mobile devices in just a couple of years, get set to witness the same for WiMAX this year. The drama is expected to unfold with veterans on the stage with the likes of Intel, Samsung, Motorola and Sprint being a part of the star cast and many years of rehearsing behind them. The drama will be played out on the world theatre, with virtually every country donning its colors and logo.

No they are not Pilot, they are all commercial launches. We have had ton of problems with Reliance and Tata's took it as a Test Bed and delayed the launch by quarter.

I forget the range but their are two FREE frequencies in which wimax can operate and I think they are using it. The uaction they are talking about will most likely enable operators to provide Mobile WiMax.

Chetan: but spectrum for WiMax hasn't been allocated…It's going to auctioned at one-third the reserve price of 3G…are these pilots of commercial rollouts?

My Take
Blue tooth is out and not going to make it further.
WiMax is still take time as equipment cost is very high.
Broadband is surging and make entries in rural areas.
Internet reach would grow exponentially.

@Equity Man : your predictions are really interesting .

Management buyouts in India ?? Never Heard of it :-o

Home shopping will establish itself as scalable/sustainable business?? I doubt ..Asian Skyshop is here for a long time now i don't see what will boost it adaptation in 2008

"More listed companies will change their name to Media and Media related business.."

as if investor just put their money based on name .

are you pushing your Funds /Portfolio here ?

Internet valauations will reach for the skys with fund raising of Naukri, Web 18 and possible listing of Shaadi.com, yatraonline, makemytrip.com etc

Management buyouts of stand alone/established brands will happen

Regional broadcasting will see more players ie Balaji/STAR combine foray

More southern players will come to equity market particularly from motion/animation picture and multiplexes ( aping Pyramyd Saimira Model)

Animation training cos will grow rapidly and possible fund raising/vc deals by few

Mobile VAS will go through the roof in valation through IPO of Onmobile , Tanla will benefit and other will try to tap the equity market

More listed companies will change their name to Media and Media related business and possible change in MOU and Articles of Associaiton to fool investros in the market and take advantage of hype.

Home shopping will establish itself as scalable/sustainable business during the year and will emerge as new emerging story for the year ( Through Braodcastng/Web/Direct to Home )

Outdoor media will grow in size and scale and in profits over the next 12 months , watch out for ENIL. Money will be raised by the cos

More funds will be launched for Media space , particularly for Motion Picture

3D Animation for global mainstream theatrical will emerge during the year , watch out for Crest Animation Studio's Ltd .

Plan for national Digitisation will be subject of debate

Entertainment and Media will be one of the biggest beneficiaries of coming budget

Rationlisation/Standardisation of FII/FDI is the real possibility

Digital Asset Management will make its begining over next 12 months

Pick the rights stocks in the market and create wealth

No WiMax for another year.

Tata is the second telco to Launch WiMax in Bangalore after Reliance :-)

Oh- may I make a contentsutra/paidcontent recommendation for 2008, please?

http://disqus.com/

- social networking:  there're way too many of 'em, and we need to see some real value created to kill the monotony.

- bluetooth marketing: haven't seen much happening but folks like DaemInteractive.com seem fun. I agree with vineet – keep spam out, and rope me in.

- citizen journ…: i dont watch the news on TV anymore- dont know what to believe….why don't some newspapers partner up with a BlipTV and promote citizen journalism?

- big media: how about someone(oh..i dont know…say Rajshri) buying a video sharing site, doing a DNA flush, keeping the structure/audience intact, and re-launching?

- outsourcing: IP/Valuation play into the economic bottom-line and the answer isn't to send sourcing back home, but to source smart('the lexus & the olive tree'- T.Friedman)

- mobile vas: consolidation needed, but only w/ providers who clearly demonstrate the VA. A little shake-out is needed in '08 here..

- mobi/IP TV: some dude from MTNL IPTV called me the other day. I was like OK….e-mail me the details. No e-mail. I looked at their inJested list at: http://mumbai.mtnl.net.in/iptv/injested_list.pdf and got bored into abandoning my IPTV plans. (PS: 80+ religious channels…) And I'm an early adopter who wouldn’t mind the 1000 + 300 per month. I wonder how late the late adopters will be.

- Mobile internet: ‘yes’ on the larger cross-platform integration strategy. unless someone builds up the next killer photo-video app to help citizen journalists vlog to their india-times-bliptv accounts. The biz model would involve mobile vas, and content would be available on youtube and MTNL IPTV.

here's to '08.

Here is my take.

1) Social networking will continue to grow. Social networks will have to fulfill fundamental utilities to grow and sustain. At some point in time facebook and orkut will also have to do this (maybe not in 2008) - chat and making friends is a passing phase and does not really mean much on a long term basis.

2) Bluetooth marketing will have to deal with the fear of viruses being sent here and there…. personally i keep my bluetooth off till i have to transfer/swap content with a trusted source… consumer hotspots may be a start though… like NFC projects doing rounds in developed markets

3)  Big Media deals - agreed

4) Advergaming and Branded Content: agreed but with a pinch of salt

5) Funding and acquisition of Content Providers: The key here will be - what kind of IP companies have and what quality…. sorry to say its not a very happy situation…

6) WiFi and WiMax: Should be provided free and should be branded/subsidised by a brand…. give it free and people will love it.

7) Funding and Acquisitions in Mobile VAS space: VC's are not really going overboard on this….. ever VAS player worth its name in India is on the selling block…. but who is buying ????

8) No 3G, no Mobile TV in 2008, IPTV will continue to flounder: Agreed…. but 3G will see the light of the day.

9) Regional Content: Always a believer in this….

10) LBS: Carriers should open network access for this….. has a good mkt potential….

11) Newspapers & Magazines: Agreed

12) Broadband: Unfortunate… but i agree

13) Music: Expect big news from Nokia on OVI and some more initiatives…. Music market will change in 2008 for the good….

14) Mobile Internet: my take on this is "The future of internet is mobile"