ContentSutra Predictions For 2008
I made just one prediction last year, that IPTV will flounder in 2007, and got it right. So, enthused by that success, I’m taking a bigger gamble this year - a whole bunch of predictions for digital content in India for 2008:
—Social Networking: The hype around social networking will mean that more and more media companies will eye that space. So expect some niche social networks around brands and content to launch, replacing forums and discussion boards, but integrated with content. Don’t expect social networks to shut shop - they’ll be up for sale - but they’ll continue to decline as Facebook and Orkut grow in prominence. Some social networks launched over the past couple of years will probably be acquired by media companies to reduce time to market, but no big exits.
—Bluetooth Marketing infrastructure will come up in Consumer Hotspots - in coffee shops and malls, probably integrated with the Digital Signage Networks already in place. So more interactivity there.
—Cross Media: I expect this to be the biggest trend in 2008 - media publications using online and mobile to supplement TV, Print and Radio, and vice versa. More push for citizen journalism, as content will be gathered online and on mobile, and also some cases of ‘citizen paparazzi’, maybe for the likes of India TV.
—Big Media Deals: Expect at least one more cross border big media strategic deal of the NBCU-NDTV, Viacom-Network18, Turner-Miditech and Disney-UTV league…if not more.
—Advergaming and Branded Content: This will be the year for advergaming, both online and mobile. More and more brands, including media companies, will use casual games, branded portals, and niche social networks to connect with their audience. A lot of this mobile content will be distributed via the bluetooth marketing infrastructure.
—Outsourcing companies look closer to home: it’s already begun, and expect that trend to continue, both in Gaming and Animation. Lower margins for sure, but it’s about ownership of IP, and valuation play.
—Funding and acquisition of Content Providers: Original IP will be big game - funding and acquisition for digitization. Also established producers will raise money and look for a bigger, global play.
—WiFi and WiMax: More hotspots, mostly paid. I think some retail chains will take a gamble and offer free WiFi to users. No WiMax for another year.
—Funding and Acquisitions in Mobile VAS space: Expect consolidation in the Mobile VAS space as a few will raise more capital by either VC funding or IPO. Some of that capital will be used to acquire some of the smaller niche players, struggling for survival.
—No 3G, no Mobile TV in 2008, IPTV will continue to flounder: Sorry, but that’s the way it goes…the legal and media battle will switch from 2G spectrum to allocation of 3G spectrum and mobile TV licenses. Deployment of infrastructure across the country will take time, so wait till 2009 (at least). I’ll leave the ‘3G will flop’ prediction for next year. IPTV will continue to flounder in 2008, despite Airtel and Reliance launching their services.
—Regional Content: Creation and aggregation of regional content for distribution to big media will be a big theme for 2008…perhaps in anticipation of big media deals in 2009. 2008 is the year that they build up a content base.
—Location based services will be launched, but not take off.
—Newspapers & Magazines: Indian magazines and newspapers will increase their presence online. More international magazines are going to be launched in India in 2008, but they wont target the online space; they’re after the print bounty.
—Broadband: no miracles here. It’s going to be a long hard fight, until the last mile gets unbundled, or affordable wireless services are launched. No unbundling of the last mile in 2008.
—Music: Nokia’s (NYSE: NOK) OVI is expected to be a big boost for music downloads, but I don’t think that will happen unless they launch subscription based services (which is unlikely). The ringtone market will decline, and ringback tone market will grow.
—Mobile Internet: I don’t believe pay-for-view content on the mobile will grow. I expect more WAP sites for existing Internet portals, but don’t think mobile-only portals will work. There needs to be cross media integration. Mobile Advertising will be mainly search based and on established portals.
So enough soothsaying from me…What’s your take?
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Comments (12)
Jan 5, 2008 4:20 AM
Here is my take.
1) Social networking will continue to grow. Social networks will have to fulfill fundamental utilities to grow and sustain. At some point in time facebook and orkut will also have to do this (maybe not in 2008) - chat and making friends is a passing phase and does not really mean much on a long term basis.
2) Bluetooth marketing will have to deal with the fear of viruses being sent here and there…. personally i keep my bluetooth off till i have to transfer/swap content with a trusted source… consumer hotspots may be a start though… like NFC projects doing rounds in developed markets
3) Big Media deals - agreed
4) Advergaming and Branded Content: agreed but with a pinch of salt
5) Funding and acquisition of Content Providers: The key here will be - what kind of IP companies have and what quality…. sorry to say its not a very happy situation…
6) WiFi and WiMax: Should be provided free and should be branded/subsidised by a brand…. give it free and people will love it.
7) Funding and Acquisitions in Mobile VAS space: VC’s are not really going overboard on this….. ever VAS player worth its name in India is on the selling block…. but who is buying ????
8) No 3G, no Mobile TV in 2008, IPTV will continue to flounder: Agreed…. but 3G will see the light of the day.
9) Regional Content: Always a believer in this….
10) LBS: Carriers should open network access for this….. has a good mkt potential….
11) Newspapers & Magazines: Agreed
12) Broadband: Unfortunate… but i agree
13) Music: Expect big news from Nokia on OVI and some more initiatives…. Music market will change in 2008 for the good….
14) Mobile Internet: my take on this is “The future of internet is mobile”
Jan 5, 2008 10:25 AM
- social networking: there’re way too many of ‘em, and we need to see some real value created to kill the monotony.
- bluetooth marketing: haven’t seen much happening but folks like DaemInteractive.com seem fun. I agree with vineet – keep spam out, and rope me in.
- citizen journ…: i dont watch the news on TV anymore- dont know what to believe….why don’t some newspapers partner up with a BlipTV and promote citizen journalism?
- big media: how about someone(oh..i dont know…say Rajshri) buying a video sharing site, doing a DNA flush, keeping the structure/audience intact, and re-launching?
- outsourcing: IP/Valuation play into the economic bottom-line and the answer isn’t to send sourcing back home, but to source smart(‘the lexus & the olive tree’- T.Friedman)
- mobile vas: consolidation needed, but only w/ providers who clearly demonstrate the VA. A little shake-out is needed in ‘08 here..
- mobi/IP TV: some dude from MTNL IPTV called me the other day. I was like OK….e-mail me the details. No e-mail. I looked at their inJested list at: http://mumbai.mtnl.net.in/iptv/injested_list.pdf and got bored into abandoning my IPTV plans. (PS: 80+ religious channels…) And I’m an early adopter who wouldn’t mind the 1000 + 300 per month. I wonder how late the late adopters will be.
- Mobile internet: ‘yes’ on the larger cross-platform integration strategy. unless someone builds up the next killer photo-video app to help citizen journalists vlog to their india-times-bliptv accounts. The biz model would involve mobile vas, and content would be available on youtube and MTNL IPTV.
here’s to ‘08.
Jan 5, 2008 10:35 AM
Oh- may I make a contentsutra/paidcontent recommendation for 2008, please?
http://disqus.com/
Jan 6, 2008 3:00 AM
No WiMax for another year.
Tata is the second telco to Launch WiMax in Bangalore after Reliance :-)
Jan 6, 2008 7:55 AM
Internet valauations will reach for the skys with fund raising of Naukri, Web 18 and possible listing of Shaadi.com, yatraonline, makemytrip.com etc
Management buyouts of stand alone/established brands will happen
Regional broadcasting will see more players ie Balaji/STAR combine foray
More southern players will come to equity market particularly from motion/animation picture and multiplexes ( aping Pyramyd Saimira Model)
Animation training cos will grow rapidly and possible fund raising/vc deals by few
Mobile VAS will go through the roof in valation through IPO of Onmobile , Tanla will benefit and other will try to tap the equity market
More listed companies will change their name to Media and Media related business and possible change in MOU and Articles of Associaiton to fool investros in the market and take advantage of hype.
Home shopping will establish itself as scalable/sustainable business during the year and will emerge as new emerging story for the year ( Through Braodcastng/Web/Direct to Home )
Outdoor media will grow in size and scale and in profits over the next 12 months , watch out for ENIL. Money will be raised by the cos
More funds will be launched for Media space , particularly for Motion Picture
3D Animation for global mainstream theatrical will emerge during the year , watch out for Crest Animation Studio’s Ltd .
Plan for national Digitisation will be subject of debate
Entertainment and Media will be one of the biggest beneficiaries of coming budget
Rationlisation/Standardisation of FII/FDI is the real possibility
Digital Asset Management will make its begining over next 12 months
Pick the rights stocks in the market and create wealth
Jan 6, 2008 12:40 PM
@Equity Man : your predictions are really interesting .
Management buyouts in India ?? Never Heard of it :-o
Home shopping will establish itself as scalable/sustainable business?? I doubt ..Asian Skyshop is here for a long time now i don’t see what will boost it adaptation in 2008
“More listed companies will change their name to Media and Media related business..”
as if investor just put their money based on name .
are you pushing your Funds /Portfolio here ?
Jan 6, 2008 4:49 PM
My Take
Blue tooth is out and not going to make it further.
WiMax is still take time as equipment cost is very high.
Broadband is surging and make entries in rural areas.
Internet reach would grow exponentially.
Jan 6, 2008 10:41 PM
Chetan: but spectrum for WiMax hasn’t been allocated…It’s going to auctioned at one-third the reserve price of 3G…are these pilots of commercial rollouts?
Jan 7, 2008 12:07 AM
No they are not Pilot, they are all commercial launches. We have had ton of problems with Reliance and Tata’s took it as a Test Bed and delayed the launch by quarter.
I forget the range but their are two FREE frequencies in which wimax can operate and I think they are using it. The uaction they are talking about will most likely enable operators to provide Mobile WiMax.
Jan 7, 2008 1:06 AM
WiMAX as the Top Wireless Trend for 2008
Fortune has named WiMAX as the top ten wireless trend for 2008.The naming of WiMAX as the top wireless trend for 2008 has not come as a surprise to industry watchers. A number of developments, happening in their own areas are now coming together to deliver the promise of a completely new mobile wireless experience, the first in over a decade. There are no less than ten reasons, which we foresee today, which are likely to make this prediction ring true.
Firstly, the price of CPEs based on bill of material costs has for the first time forecast to be below $100 (e.g. by Wavesat®). This is even without any of the large scale introductions of WiMAX networks, and even with relatively low CPE volumes in existence today. With volume the prices are set to nosedive even further.
Second, the year 2008 is slated to be one, where large scale introductions of WiMAX networks will happen. The launch of XOHM by Sprint Nextel and WiMAX from Clearwire® will propel the availability of WiMAX to over 100 million of customers before the year is out. This follows over 200 trials and successful introductions in a number of countries.
Third, WiMAX technologies have now matured with the WIMAX forum certifying Wave 2 compatible mobile WiMAX devices. Chipsets are available e.g. from Beceem or Runcom amongst many others which provide immediate implementation of a variety of customer premises equipment(CPEs).
Fourth, the governments worldwide have now much higher awareness of the power of mobility as well WiMAX as an enabler of rural and urban connectivities and its potential in delivering high speed applications. With many of the countries adding 8-10 million users a month for mobile services, universal connectivity is squarely in focus. This is implying a better focus on regulatory issues to spur WiMAX networks.
Fifthly there is a greater availability of CPEs ranging from PC cards, USB modems, standalone gaming devices and internet tablets. Hence operators who do not possess wireline assets are now willing to take a plunge with the new technologies.
Sixth, there is now much better clarity on the use of spectrum for WIMAX and mobile WiMAX. With the WRC 2007 adopting the OFDMA-TDD as one of the approved air interfaces under IMT-2000 as well as clearly defining the WiMAX spectrum bands, many of the pending allocations can be quickly resolved.
Seventh, the success of programs such as M-Taiwan and Eratech® Argentina amongst many others have demonstrated that e-governance and universal connectivity are key drivers of global competitiveness. Regulators globally are seeking expeditious implementations of WiMAX networks, both through spectrum auctions as well as licensing etc.
Eighth, most of the legacy wireline and wireless networks based on TDM circuit switched architecture are nearing end of life and the new generation networks( NGNs) are invariably being implemented based on IP. WiMAX is one of the key wireless technologies which are based on completely open architectures, use of IETF protocols and use of IPv6. The use of WiMAX is seen not only as a migration to open IP core networks with support for mobility but also migration to IPv6 which is inevitable with growing base of mobile devices and mandates for such migration in many countries.
Ninth, the WiMAX technology, unlike its predecessor the WiFi, provides a number of quality of service classes, which can be defined for each connection and each application running over these connections. Thus it can support VoIP for rural telephony as easily as streaming video with their own QoS classes. It is now being seen as a key technology to enable true broadband capable of supporting a rich multimedia messaging and calling environments. Whether it is pictures with an 8Mp camera or an 80GB iPOD®, WiMAX can keep these wireless. Many applications are now ready to step out of the limited connectivity and the row resolutions enabled by today’s mobile networks.
Tenth and finally, all this would be in vain, were it not for some “big-bang” introductions of the technology, which immediately provide a critical mass for prices to come down sufficiently for even more users to subscribe to the service, thus creating a chain reaction.
With the impending launches in a number of countries, as well as launch of Sprint Nextel XOHM and Clearwire® services in USA, the stage is now fully set for just such a phenomenon.
Just as WiFi changed the landscape in the use of computers and mobile devices in just a couple of years, get set to witness the same for WiMAX this year. The drama is expected to unfold with veterans on the stage with the likes of Intel, Samsung, Motorola and Sprint being a part of the star cast and many years of rehearsing behind them. The drama will be played out on the world theatre, with virtually every country donning its colors and logo.
Jan 9, 2008 8:17 AM
“I expect more WAP sites for existing Internet portals”,
WAP is dead. Major sites will still however prepare sites that they feel are mobile compatible, forgetting that modern browsers can now display the real Web on even low-end cheap handsets.
“but don’t think mobile-only portals will work.”
I agree with that. People want and certainly deserve the full Web they are used to looking at on their computers. This is 2008 after all, not 2001.
Jan 25, 2008 6:00 AM
Any predictions whether MNP may have any impact on operators to focus on VAS?
My take is that it QoS and tariffs are no longer incentives for porting in the Indian context since Qos remains equally bad across all operators and tariff plans seem to be either confusing or somewhat similar across operators in similar circles. Operators would indeed have to look towards VAS inorder to differentiate their offerings to lock in high end( high ARPU users) once MNP is implemented.
On mobile advertsing we are already seeing some traction on it from global brands such as Nokia, Yahoo and Google who are aiming to partcipate and forge partnerships with telcos and independent VAS companies and even advertising agencies to build an ecosystem and business models around this concept. Its not hard to beleieve that you might see some global brands coming in and changing the rules of the game in order to garner a larger revenue share through mob ads than the existing skewed revenue sharing arrangement. They will still nt be able to bypass the telcos but due to their stromng brand may excercise some power to negotiate a better revenue share.