After close to 20% year-on-year growth of advertising for nearly four years, there is now a great deal of apprehension among media companies about what 2009 holds for ad spends. Four projections from media agencies and research companies give a wide range of figures. Madison Media has the bleakest Outlook. In its report with Pitch magazine, the agency said advertising will grow only by 2% in 2009. GroupM is the most optimistic, projecting a 9% growth in 2009. The FICCI-KPMG report projected a 7.58% growth and a just released report by Media Partners Asia, a research firm, says advertising will grow 7.2%.

Who do you believe?

We surveyed five CEOs across media platforms whose businesses are heavily dependent on advertising revenues. We asked them which figure they believed and why. We also asked them to base their answers on the performance of the first two months of the year. Here’s what they said.

Ravi Dhariwal, CEO, Bennett, Coleman & Co. Ltd. Publishes The Times of India and The Economic Times, among others.
“I don’t really know. If one were to extrapolate the first two months of this year, then there will be an actual decline, and no growth. It is entirely dependent on the revival of the economy and if things get better, we will do better. But things are so volatile right now, I have no way of predicting when there will turn for the better.”

Peter Mukerjea, Founder, INX Media Pvt Ltd. Broadcasts general entertainment channel 9X and music channel 9XM.
“I think 2% growth is an optimistic figure. While brands will continue to be active in the market space, they will be forced to look at different ways of spending. The sentiment is really challenged right now and marketing directors will come under increasing pressure from their boards to cut marketing spends, so I don’t see how they will manage to bring in greater ad spends this year.”

Maheshwar Peri, President, Outlook Publishing India Pvt. Ltd. Publishes Outlook magazine.
“I’d go with the lowest figure as of now. Please remember that last year, only the second half was bad. We had at least six months of good revenues. I think we’d be well off if we can at least hold on to last year’s figures. We have all reoriented our cost structures based on the bad months end of last year. Now if we can maintain last year’s figures, we would be doing well.”

Keertivasan, Business head, HT Music & Entertainment Ltd. Broadcasts Fever104 FM radio station.
“I think the growth will be somewhere around 5%. Clearly the first half of 2009 will be bad, but i’m betting that during the second half, consumer demand and with it, advertising, will pick up.”

Dinesh Wadhawan, CEO, Times Internet Ltd. Runs the portal Indiatimes.com and many other flagship Internet ptoperties of The Times of India Group.
“I’d say 5-7% growth. First two quarters will be bad, there is this big phobia right now, but i think that will change. The second two quarters will be better. Around August, festival season begins in this country. Spending will increase around that time.”

What do you think? Share with us any anecdotal evidence or figures from your businesses and companies. Use the comment form or write to me at sk AT contentsutra DOT com.